In September 2000, the Palestinians began a terror offensive against Israel. They did this because they refused to accept the Camp David proposal, which promised them the entire Gaza Strip and 91 percent of the West Bank in exchange for full recognition of Israel and an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. If Ehud Olmert is elected prime minister and implements his convergence plan, then in September 2010 the Palestinians will have sovereignty over the entire Gaza Strip and some 91 percent of the West Bank, and all this without recognizing Israel and without ending the conflict.

Thus will the national Palestinian movement fulfill the objectives of its wars and obtain a full strategic resolution against the State of Israel.

What Olmert plans to do in the next few years is to establish an armed Hamas state in Judea, Samaria and Gaza. Via the nearly complete withdrawal, Olmert will promise Hamas almost total control in the Palestinian state for generations. The Palestine of Olmert will be hostile, dissatisfied and violent. Its founding ethos will be "We've chased them out of Ofra, we'll chase them out of Tzahala too.".

* If Israel disengages, it should end its civil rule in the vacated areas but maintain military control for security purposes and to retain future "negotiating cards." This would entail the dismantling of settlements in the vacated areas and consolidating settlement blocs. Already, a new term has been coined in this regard: "consolidation."

* To be effective, the consolidation would be unilateral vis-à-vis the Palestinians, but should be made contingent on a major US, EU, and international quid pro quo, including:

- Recognition of the consolidation as the fulfillment of all steps required of Israel under the Roadmap, pending final status negotiations, and of the vacated area in the West Bank and Gaza as the Roadmap's provisional Palestinian state for the future.

- Explicit EU recognition of the 2004 Bush letter which states that Israel's future borders will reflect demographic realities, that the refugee issue can only be resolved within a Palestinian state, and that Israel has the right to defensible borders.

- A major upgrading of Israeli relations with the EU, Egypt and Jordan, as well as the Gulf States and North African countries. Efforts should also be initiated with Saudi Arabia.

* Unlike Gaza, Israel will be seeking a diplomatic quid pro quo for less than a full withdrawal, while leaving the army in place. The more extensive the withdrawal, the greater the likelihood of international assurances but also of greater security risks for Israel.

Hamas must, therefore, be put to the test. Assuming that it does, indeed, prove itself implacably opposed to any compromise, Israel would then be justified in declaring that the period of negotiations has ended, at least for the foreseeable future, and would be far freer to impose a unilateral settlement to its liking. Though not permanent, this arrangement might be very long-term.

A united international front would pressure the Palestinians to come to terms with reality, accept that they will never achieve 100 percent of their goals, and hasten their possible return to negotiations.