Two major questions form the puzzle of the Israeli air incursion in Syria. The first, is why Israel chose to risk US wrath by disturbing the peace before the upcoming November summit, and the second is why Israel is keeping mum about the target.
Speculation regarding the Israeli air-incursion in Syria is rife. Various articles claim that
Israel attacked Iranian targets in Syria Israel attacked nuclear targets in Syria and Israel attacked missile batteries brought to Syria from Iran.
None of these theories provide an answer to the two major questions. If Syrians are getting Iranian technology, or transferring Iranian technology to Hezbolla, it is greatly to Israel's advantage to advertise the nature of the target and to provide proof, in order to justify the incursions.
A probable explanation that allows the two missing pieces to fit into the puzzle lies in a different direction entirely. The
Russians are developing naval bases in Tartus and Latakia. To support and defend these bases, the Russians may have been installing versions of the
Pantsyr-1 (SA-22 or SA-19) missile system.
Syria has also reportedly purchased the Pantsyr system and is rumored to be transferring it to Iran. Or possibly, the Russians may have installed and manned a listening post, similar to the one that did so much damage in the recent Lebanon war.
The Pantsyr has mobile and stationary versions, and can cover a radius of at least 20 KM. In a war, it could be moved to provide an air umbrella for Syrian incursions into Israel.
If Russian technicians or military personnel were the target of the strike, then for obvious reasons Israel would have no interest in advertising the nature of the target, the Russians would have no interest in admitting their presence, and the United States would be quite happy with the result.
When you have eliminated all other explanations, what remains, however improbable, must be the solution.
Ami Isseroff
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Replies: 4 Comments
Huldah:
You may recall that North Korea promised to get rid of its nukes in exchange for aid and other considerations from a number of western nations. Between being the likeliest place for Saddam's contraband to ultimately be discovered having been hidden their by the Russians and Syria's well-known close ties to Iran, the assassinations of various politicians, do you really think Syria wants to add home of North Korean nukes to its list of accomplishments? repository for NK nukes as well.
Lynne T, Monday, September 17th
That Syria has not made a real stink about it at the UN also hints at a nuclear connection. Some evidence could come out which would put them on an even hotter hot seat than Israel. Just something else to think about.
Glenn, Sunday, September 16th
there's no mention at all of north korea here, but there's gotta be some reason that north korea condemned the act so loudly (while not so much was heard from russia). right now, hints seem to be pointing towards nuclear connection. but of course it's still quite a mystery.
Glenn, Sunday, September 16th
So if you're correct, what's the reason why Syria is keeping so quiet about this? Why aren't they screaming all the way to the UN for the usual hatefest?
Huldah, Saturday, September 15th
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