Only a few hours ago, I wrote a complex analysis of two other complex analyses of the existential question concerning Gaza:
"Gaza: To negotiate a cease fire or not to negotiate.". Reality often simplifies the equations of strategic considerations. The
Islamic Jihad fired 15 rockets into
Israel while I was writing, illustrating two neglected details concerning the cease fire fantasy. That should put an end to consideration of the cease fire talk, but it won't.
Ha'aretz newspaper, which seems to be largely responsible for inventing the fantasy that the lull in rocket fire was due to a negotiated agreement, is having a difficult time adjusting to the facts. Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
wrote about the "fragile" lull. But there was never any lull. The rockets were falling by the time they finished writing. The rocket fire was, ostensibly, a reaction to Israeli killing of top Islamic Jihad terrorists in the West Bank. The events explain why there can be no "cease fire" in Gaza:
1.
Hamas can claim, and it will, that it has no control over Islamic Jihad. This is an old ploy that was first employed by Yasser Arafat to disown terrorist hits of the Black September "movement." Hamas and Islamic Jihad are two arms of the same body. The head is in Tehran.
2. Any cease fire in Gaza would require that Israel stop targeting terrorists in the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority, as usual has neither the means nor the will to contain terror on its own. Therefore, the price of stopping rockets in Gaza by a cease fire, is the renewal of suicide and terror attacks in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Netanya from the West Bank.
The rocket fire also puts an end to Israel government fantasies that the recent Gaza operation had a real deterrent effect.
Ami Isseroff
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