"But only when we have an exit plan" is the first of several "buts" concerning any possible invasion of Gaza. An exit plan is not really in sight, is it? It is like saying "Next year in Jerusalem - provided the Messiah comes." There are a few other "buts." Israel cannot undertake an extensive Gaza operation without sufficient provocation. The art of Hamas operations is that they seem to know exactly how much terror Israel is willing to absorb, and how much terror the world will take, before Israeli public opinion forces an attack, and before world public opinion is willing to tolerate it. Hamas also know that Israel is reluctant to attack before the Independence Day celebrations are over. They are striking while the iron is hot. After the celebrations are over, Hamas may sober up and settle down to quietly smuggling arms across the border and other minor annoyances. They may also initiate another series of "nonviolent" demonstrations like the one that fizzled not long ago, which was, in fact, supposed to be the cover for a terror attack that was foiled.

The danger for Hamas is that they may over-play their hand, and carry out a terror raid or kidnapping during the period before the independence celebrations that will cause so much damage that it will force Israel to retaliate, exit plan or no exit plan, world opinion or no world opinion. In the logic of provocation and retaliation, intent doesn't matter. "Almost" does not count. The latest terror attacks were meant to be kidnapping operations it seems, but they failed. Several Grad rockets have also landed in Ashkelon. As luck would have it, they didn't do much damage. A katyusha ("Grad") rocket that falls on a chemical plant in Ashkelon, or a successful kidnapping attempt that carries off a few soldiers to keep company with Gilad Schalit could conceivably trigger a massive retaliatory raid. It probably would not trigger the "decisive" operation aimed at eliminating Hamas, unless the IDF is ready for that operation. The other "but" of course, is that every partial operation, or worse, a massive operation that fails to uproot Hamas, will be considered a Hamas "victory" no matter how much damage it does.

Ami Isseroff