Zionism: Israeli Flag

e-Zion Israel News
 Israel Elections: Opinion Survey Poll Results

home site map Zionism on the Web definitions issues Timeline history Documents  links photo gallery contact help

 Israel Elections 2006: LAST Opinion Survey Poll Results

Introduction

This is (probably, really)  the last in this series of postings, since elections will be held tomorrow. Latest polls seem to show a consistent dip for Kadima and a large number of undecided voters. "Everyone" agrees that Kadima will get the most seats. The question is whether the center left block of Kadima, Labor and Meretz will get enough votes to form a viable coalition. The Likud has been uncompromising in its opposition to further withdrawals.  If Kadima has to include the Likud in the coalition, what happens to the plans for further disengagement? 

Some possible scenarios, based on what is below:

"Best Case for disengagement coalition"

Kadima -  36

Labor       21

Meretz        6

------------------

Total         64

This is an unlikely scenario based on the polls because the poll that gives Labor 21 gives Kadima only 34 mandates

Worst case for disengagement coalition

Kadima -  34

Labor       17

Meretz        5

------------------

Total         56

According to the polls, in the worst case, even a coalition with the Yahadut Hatorah party might get only 62 mandates and would not be stable. Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, spiritual leader of Shas, has said that anyone who votes for Kadima should go to hell. It is not likely that Kadima voters will take his advice, but it isn't likely that Shas will join a Kadima-led coalition either. When we remember the very real differences in economic outlook between Meretz and Kadima, we can understand that the real story of the Israeli elections will be, as usual, in the formation of the coalition.

On the other hand, the parties of the right cannot form a coalition either:

Likud -                14

NU/NRP             12

Yisrael Beiteinu 15

Shas                   12

----------------------------

Total                    53

 

All this is true provided that there are no "surprises." As the Israeli political apparatus is able to generate surprises, and as 28% of the votes  are reportedly still  "undecided," surprises may not be so surprising.

In any case, don't be surprised if Sylvan Shalom launches a bid to oust Benjamin Netanyahu after the elections, and bring the Likud into the coalition.

Ami Isseroff

Last Pre-Election Polls: Kadima 34-36 Labor 17-21 Likud 12-14 Yisrael Beiteinu 7-15 NRP/Nat'l Union 8-12

Aaron Lerner     Date:27 March 2006

Dialogue found 28 seat for "undecided"

#1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 503 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) carried out by Maagar Mochot on 25 March after the
end of the Sabbath for the Mishal Cham television program..

#2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Dialogue for Channel 10 and Haaretz on 26
March 2006 (poll completed early afternoon)..

#3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf  for Yediot Ahronot on 26 March 2006

#4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Teleseker  for Maariv on 26 March 2006

Knesset election vote expressed in mandates[current in brackets]
#1  #2 #3  #4
34 36 34 34 [00] Kadima
12 14 13 14 [40] Likud
19 18 21 17 [22] Labor
00 00 00 00 [15] Shinui (both the party and the break-away "Secular Zionist Party")
08 11 11 12 [11] Shas
07 08 07 07 [08] Arab parties
06 06 05 05 [06] Yachad [Meretz]
08 12 09 11 [07* & 6] National Union & NRP
15 07 12 12 [07*] Yisrael Beiteinu [Lieberman]
07 06 06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
02 02 02 02 [00] Gil [retired people's party headed by Rafi Eitan]
01 ----------[00] Green Party (environment)
01 ----------[00] Green Leaf (hashis)
* National Union & Yisrael Beiteinu together have 7 seats
* at least two seats are required - 2.5% of the vote - to pass teh
threshold.

Website: http://www.imra.org.il
 


Forum Discussion  

Israel Political Parties Explained

Final Results - Knesset Elections 2006

Previous Israel Election Polls

Forum Discussion of Sharon and his illness

Likud Party Knesset List Labor party List


You are reading this article at E-Zion Israel News

External Zionism Links

This site provides resources about Zionism and Israeli history, including links to source documents. We are not responsible for the information content of these sites.

Please do copy these links, and tell your friends about  http://www.zionism-israel.com Zionism and Israel Information Center

 Thank you.

Sister sites: Zionism and Israel Pages   Zionism and Israel on the Web

Friends and informative sites:

Zionism - Definition and Brief History - A balanced article that covers the definitions and history of Zionism as well as opposition to Zionism and criticisms by Arabs,  Jewish anti-Zionists.

Labor Zionism - Early History and Critique - Contribution of Labor Zionism to the creation of the Jewish state, and problems of Labor Zionism in a changing reality.

Active Zionism - A Zionist advocacy site with many useful links

La Bibliothèque Proche Orientale- Le Grand Mufti Husseini

The Grand Mufti Haj Amin El Husseini

Israel-Palestina - (Dutch) Middle East Conflict, Israel, Palestine,Zionism... Israël-Palestina Informatie -gids Israël, Zionisme, Palestijnen en Midden-Oosten conflict... Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a European perspective - Dutch and English.

Zionisme - israelinformatie- Zionisme Israel/Jodendom Israelisch-Palestijns Conflict Anti-Semitisme Shoa - a Dutch Web site with many useful Jewish, Zionism and Israel links (in English too).

Googletestad - What is it, and why it is important for us

Forum Discussion: Lawyers Guild "Zionism is Racism" resolution

 

 

ZioNation - Zionism-Israel Web Log    Zionism & Israel News  Israel: like this, as if History of Zionism Zionism FAQ Zionism Israel Center Maps of Israel Jew Zionism and its Impact Israel Christian Zionism Site Map