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Introduction
This is (probably, really) the last in this series of postings, since elections will be held tomorrow. Latest polls seem to show a consistent dip for Kadima and a large number of undecided voters. "Everyone" agrees that Kadima will get the most seats. The question is whether the center left block of Kadima, Labor and Meretz will get enough votes to form a viable coalition. The Likud has been uncompromising in its opposition to further withdrawals. If Kadima has to include the Likud in the coalition, what happens to the plans for further disengagement?
Some possible scenarios, based on what is below:
"Best Case for disengagement coalition"
Kadima - 36
Labor 21
Meretz 6
------------------
Total 64
This is an unlikely scenario based on the polls because the poll that gives Labor 21 gives Kadima only 34 mandates
Worst case for disengagement coalition
Kadima - 34
Labor 17
Meretz 5
------------------
Total 56
According to the polls, in the worst case, even a coalition with the Yahadut Hatorah party might get only 62 mandates and would not be stable. Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, spiritual leader of Shas, has said that anyone who votes for Kadima should go to hell. It is not likely that Kadima voters will take his advice, but it isn't likely that Shas will join a Kadima-led coalition either. When we remember the very real differences in economic outlook between Meretz and Kadima, we can understand that the real story of the Israeli elections will be, as usual, in the formation of the coalition.
On the other hand, the parties of the right cannot form a coalition either:
Likud - 14
NU/NRP 12
Yisrael Beiteinu 15
Shas 12
----------------------------
Total 53
All this is true provided that there are no "surprises." As the Israeli political apparatus is able to generate surprises, and as 28% of the votes are reportedly still "undecided," surprises may not be so surprising.
In any case, don't be surprised if Sylvan Shalom launches a bid to oust Benjamin Netanyahu after the elections, and bring the Likud into the coalition.
Ami Isseroff
Last Pre-Election Polls: Kadima 34-36 Labor 17-21 Likud 12-14 Yisrael Beiteinu 7-15
NRP/Nat'l Union 8-12
Aaron Lerner Date:27 March 2006
Dialogue found 28 seat for "undecided"
#1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 503 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) carried out by Maagar Mochot on 25 March after the
end of the Sabbath for the Mishal Cham television program..
#2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Dialogue for Channel 10 and Haaretz on 26
March 2006 (poll completed early afternoon)..
#3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Ahronot on 26 March 2006
#4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Teleseker for Maariv on 26 March 2006
Knesset election vote expressed in mandates[current in brackets]
#1 #2 #3 #4
34 36 34 34 [00] Kadima
12 14 13 14 [40] Likud
19 18 21 17 [22] Labor
00 00 00 00 [15] Shinui (both the party and the break-away "Secular Zionist Party")
08 11 11 12 [11] Shas
07 08 07 07 [08] Arab parties
06 06 05 05 [06] Yachad [Meretz]
08 12 09 11 [07* & 6] National Union & NRP
15 07 12 12 [07*] Yisrael Beiteinu [Lieberman]
07 06 06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
02 02 02 02 [00] Gil [retired people's party headed by Rafi Eitan]
01 ----------[00] Green Party (environment)
01 ----------[00] Green Leaf (hashis)
* National Union & Yisrael Beiteinu together have 7 seats
* at least two seats are required - 2.5% of the vote - to pass teh
threshold.
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
Israel Political Parties Explained
Final Results - Knesset Elections 2006
Previous Israel Election Polls
Forum Discussion of Sharon and his illness
Likud Party Knesset List Labor party List
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